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Vital Signs

After 13 straight trading sessions of brutal selling, MVIS and the Nasdaq have bounced back quite nicely today. Maybe the psychology that drives the market is ready to turn as well. Maybe it doesn't make sense to make investment decisions based on the color of the threat level or 'geopolitical concerns'. We're either going to survive or we aren't -- in which case it wouldn't matter if one's portfolio is all cash or all Microvision.

What I think makes more sense is to make decisions based on the probability of certain things happening.

For example, over the last year Microvision and Honda worked together to design the Nomad Expert Technician System.

In July 2003, Honda signed a letter of intent to purchase 3800 Nomads after trials in May demonstrated 39% efficiency gains for mechanics who utilize the tool.

In October 2003, Honda unveiled the Nomad to its dealers under their own name, 'i-Tech Expert Technician System'.

(Also in October 2003, Volvo Trucks measured 31% efficiency gains for mechanics using Nomad to perform complex diagnostic tasks.)

In May 2004, Honda completed certification of Nomad as a 'recommended tool' and began their process of aggregating orders to achieve favorable volume pricing.

So in July 2004, is there a greater probability of Honda coming through with their large order for Nomads, or having them say, 'on second thought, we're not interested in 39% efficiency gains'?

You make the call.


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