The Law of Accelerating Returns

I invite all MVIS Blog readers to check out Ray Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns.

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

Now as much as I want to become an immortal software-based human eventually (I actually wrote and recorded an album about this), I'd be content to succeed in the application of this Law to an investing strategy.

This essay by Kurzweil really helped alter my perceptions of the world -- it's almost palpable, the onrush of progress. The way I distill this is, anything that can be imagined can be done. And it very likely will be done, too -- much faster than you might think is possible. Humankind is capable of incredible things. While I admit a weakness for watching every blip on the MVIS ticker, I have confidence in what the future holds for the company, based on the idea that there will be leaps in capabilities each year beyond what had been possible before.

Progress is going vertical on the curve through time. Robotics, biotechnology and information technology are still in nascent forms, as advanced as they may seem right now. Humans and intelligent machines are merging -- which is easy to see with everyone going around with their cellphone earbud in their ear, talking to what looks like no one. Really, they are in an auditory virtual reality with whoever is on the other end of the call. MVIS will play a critical role in enabling the visual virtual reality that is certain to follow.

Take the time to read through Kurzweil's work of genius, and let me know if you don't feel that the evidence is incontrovertible -- and the conclusions are inescapable.