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A lot of people have asked me about whether I have any ideas about why Microvision has been moving up on substantially higher than average volume over the last couple of weeks. Here's a few of them. Microvision is moving up on huge volume because:

1. We have been drastically undervalued for several years when the scope and scale of the company's opportunities are considered. People may be pulling their heads out of the sand and starting to think about a fair value for Microvision given the upside potential and thicket of patents protecting the core IP.

2. It is becoming easier and easier to forecast revenue growth leading to profitability with Ethicon development work proceeding; Bosch agreement potentially leading to major development/license deal for MicroHUD platform; significant demand for Nomad as demonstrated in an appropriation for 1,599 units ($11.2M worth) for the Stryker Brigade in the recent Defense Bill passed unanimously by the Senate; the potential of a major consumer electronics company to partner with Microvision to bring the company's radical LED Widescreen architecture to market, as described in recent PRs and conference calls.

3. It may be that people are starting to believe that Microvision is going to be able to capitalize on its market opportunities. Having a GE executive join the company as President and COO leads one to think that the company may have turned a corner from an R&D/military contracting company to a full-fledged business entity. A change in focus from not just delivering amazing technology built to specifications but rather delivering solutions to customers' problems. Understanding market potential and where our products and our product roadmap fits into those markets. Attacking and executing in markets that are eager for quantifiable productivity gains made possible by Nomad.

The huge volume and rising price lead me to think that a mindset shift may be taking place as to how people perceive the company. And as I've discussed before, perception is the most powerful force in the stock market (and maybe the universe?). What if they really are able to captialize on their unique position as the only provider of daylight-readable see-through wearable displays? What happens to the stock as people start to come to an understanding that augmented reality technologies represent the next major opportunity in personal computing and mobile devices?

I'm looking forward to finding out.

5 comments:

At October 13, 2005 at 12:17 PM helloseth said...

I really want to see (no pun intended) their LED Widescreen tech in a new 'iPod Movie'.

Yesterdays rollout of the new iPod with Video seems to pave the way. An iPod for Movies would really need something like the MVIS 'screen'.

Imagine a future ipod with component video out and hdmi for your big screen HDTV and a visor mounted MVIS screen for travling, with a port for an extra screen for a friend.

Oh, and of course a MVIS projector for parties.

That'll be the day.

 
At October 13, 2005 at 6:17 PM Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure it was simply the speculation that MVIS might be announced along with the APPL video iPod. Very strong correlation between the stock price and the anticipation and announcement time of it. When it wasn't announced, the price fell back down.

 
At October 13, 2005 at 8:58 PM Ben said...

There's reason to believe that AAPL hype and speculation is not responsible for what's been happening with MVIS stock.

The anomalous trading pattern began on September 28. Note that a total of 642,200 shares have traded in the last two days, during which it was evident that the new iPod is basically the same thing they're selling now (LCD backlit fixed-pixel screen):

13-Oct-05 204,000 5.85
12-Oct-05 438,200 5.99
11-Oct-05 650,500 6.34
10-Oct-05 627,600 6.22
7-Oct-05 170,300 5.89
6-Oct-05 158,000 6.00
5-Oct-05 245,200 5.98
4-Oct-05 281,200 6.20
3-Oct-05 310,000 6.03
30-Sep-05 308,000 5.90
29-Sep-05 153,300 5.78
28-Sep-05 372,300 5.74

If all those shares were bought leading up to AAPL announcement, we would have gotten shellacked by folks unloading millions of shares.

That stuff is message board stuff, nothing more. People who are putting up BIG MONEY to accumulate shares know that the LED architecture is not yet ready to be unveiled as an iPod display.

The BIG MONEY people must then be buying for another reason. Note that the anomalous trading pattern began right after Gilder Telecosm got out.

Gilder, Kurzweil and Rutkowski all in a room together expounding upon the same vision -- powerful stuff, and a BIG MONEY crowd in the room to be sure.

 
At October 14, 2005 at 7:50 AM Anonymous said...

Where is the equally large/greater supply coming from??? That much volume (for whatever reason/s) without a much larger share price rise negates your argument.

 
At October 22, 2005 at 9:31 PM Ben said...

you know, on second thought -- I have no idea what's going on with this stock!!

 

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