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Cognitive Dissonance



Hey gang. Well, when I see today's closing price, I'm brought back in time to July of 2002 when I bought a bunch of MVIS stock at $3.65. Interestingly enough, I bought some more MVIS at $7.35 (whoops) in December 2002, just five months later.

So I guess if history is any guide, we can expect the stock to recover from these levels before too long.

Another thing that I think about is just how much technological progress has happened in the 3 1/2 years since my last buy in the $3s. They've shrunk the scan engine and got rid of the vacuum enclosure. They've improved the form factor and paired Nomad with a wireless wearable computer. A lot of money has been spent on R&D, and the company has been granted a whole ton of patents in that time.

When I went to MVIS HQ in May and tried out the Spectrum SD2500 display, I was blown away. The guys told me that it had taken them 12 months from the word 'go' to shrink the electronics and light sources for the Spectrum from refrigerator-size down to the standard flight rack (toaster size) enclosure that powered the SD2500. This blew my mind. Their next mission was to further shrink the light sources down to a wearable pack about the size of the Nomad's computer over the next year.

So, what we have then is a disconnect between rapid, ongoing technological progress and the creation of shareholder value. Some things have not gone as expected. Marketing Nomad into the commercial/industrial space seems to be a bigger challenge than anyone expected. Maybe the difficulties there help to explain this 3 1/2 year round trip to $3.75. I don't know.

All I can do is chalk it up to another losing season holding MVIS shares, and start to look towards the draft, and next season.

The company's opportunities in the gaming space are huge, and probably closer than ever.

The Picoprojector handheld laser display sounds amazing.

The MicroHUD is amazing, from first hand experience.

The Nomad is an awesome tool, should some killer apps finally be found.

The Ethicon micro-camera could be a huge revenue driver for the company once it goes to production. JNJ thought it was worth investing over $12M in it so far, and these guys are no dummies.

Flic seems like it should be mopping the floor with higher priced rivals so I really hope we're able to make something happen there.

It is no fun to lose tons of money while the Nasdaq is soaring and seemingly every other stock is doing great. It shows you that there's a lot of work to be done. That Microvision must grow, and change, and adapt. That Microvision has to come to be known for innovation, customer focus and doing what they say they are going to do.

There are no shortcuts, and no magic bullets. It takes hard work. It takes passion and dedication to the dream that someday soon, Microvision will change the world in a fundamental way. That the patents and the intellectual property and the collective man hours spent on retinal scanning displays can be employed in the service of creating a paradigm shift in the nature of computing.

It is only through diligence, rigor, operational and strategic excellence that Microvision will be able to fulfill its destiny.

I am still here, holding all my shares, for better or worse. I still believe that there will prove to be no greater investment vehicle over the next ten years than shares of Microvision. It is a lonely, kind of stressful feeling, believing something so strongly, for so long, and having the world just kind of laugh in your face. But, then, I have never let a little thing like reality slow me down.

It is indeed, only money. When you're in a pine box, it doesn't matter whether you were a prince or a pauper. It is only what you do when you are alive that matters. It is love, and relationships that matter. But I believe that fulfilling your destiny also matters. Living up to your potential. Building something. Making something happen.

So, that's why I'm here. Because I want to see the day when wearing a scanned beam display is so common that you notice people who aren't wearing them. And I want to profit from every unit sold. Maybe that's gonna be 2010 -- that's what Kurzweil says, anyway. Maybe it's 2012 or 2015, or maybe it's just not gonna happen. But I will be there at the end to find out.

5 comments:

At November 28, 2005 at 8:49 PM Anonymous said...

I may be in a pine box before this becomes ubiquitous, but I agree. The MVIS solution to information viewing will become ubiquitous in society. Only the "anti-nerds" who live in their "PC" caves will not have it.

A reader and very longtime rather large stockholder/accumulator

 
At November 28, 2005 at 11:00 PM Anonymous said...

In my opinion, Microvision patents are a crock of virtual reality - most repackaged stuff done by published or improved by Reflection Technologies in the late 1980s - no broad claims will survive and the big boys will squish Rutkowski once his myopic big wigs evidence their premature dementia or jump ship. Welcome to a free ride on J.P. Morgan's yacht. See Fred Moody's The Visionary Position (Random House/New York Times books) for a history lesson.

 
At November 29, 2005 at 11:21 AM Ben said...

ah, internet anonymity.

one man's 'crock of virtual reality' is another man's thicket of intellectual property that protects the rights to most significant step of man/machine integration in history.

we'll see what happens...!

 
At November 29, 2005 at 1:35 PM Anonymous said...

This technology will become ubiquitous...but the issue is would it be Microvision which brings it to the masses...Does the present management have the vision to accomplish that...

i still remember the time when i read an article about MVIS as a student and thought wow what an idea...

 
At November 29, 2005 at 2:00 PM Ben said...

well, it can still be Microvision and not be the present management.

the patents are owned by the company, not the executives.

 

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