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Catch the Fever



I got an email from a reader last night that totally blew my mind. This guy was contemplating selling his house and trying to put together enough cash for 70,000 shares of MVIS. Then he'd live 'on the cheap' for the next 4-6 years, and wait for 'MVIS-inside' (MVIS technology being OEMed by major consumer electronics companies) to happen and make him filthy rich.

I just think it's amazing. There's something so powerful about Microvision's technology that otherwise normal people would be willing to change their entire lives, for years, to own as much of the company as they possibly can for what may turn out to be the greatest 4-6 year run in the history of the stock market.

I can relate to this thought process -- I've sunk every dime I could get my hands on over the last 4 years into shares of this stock. At this moment, that's not looking too hot. But it's always been 2010 that I've had my eye on. I figure a little price volatility is the cost of having truly unlimited upside.

Now, of course it is kind of comforting to know there's somebody else out in the world who is willing to bet everything they've got on the chances that MVIS will become a global technology juggernaut.

But it got me thinking. How come it's me, and this guy and a couple dozen other guys who see the real vision for the future of this company and make every effort to acquire MVIS shares -- and not Washington Mutual and Fidelity and all the others?

What does Microvision have to do to really demonstrate what their future potential is to the financial community at large? How can a company with this much promise and partnerships with first-class companies like JNJ, BMW, VW/Audi, Bosch, et al, be just totally written off by these guys?

I do not believe the financial community is very smart or very forward looking (apologies to institutional readers -- I don't mean you, but those other guys down the hall). They are only thinking about interest rates, the price of oil, capital gains offsetting, blah blah. They see out to the next 3 months and have no conception or idea about the next 3 years.

Generally speaking, these institutions do not understand the significance of exponential progress or have a way to understand that Microvision will make many times more progress miniaturizing and improving their technology in the next 3 years than they did in the first ten years of their existence. This is the nature of technology. It elevates itself and reaches a plateau which in turn allows it to reach ever higher. It spirals upwards, faster and faster.

We need to boil it down to its essence for these guys. Spoon feed it to them. We. Will. Dominate. The. Future. Get it?

We need to have some deep pocketed folks come on board who share the passion and the vision for the future of this company that I've got, that this guy who wrote me has got, and that a whole bunch of readers of MVIS Blog have got. We need to figure out a way to spread this excitement from guys like me who work regular jobs and don't just have piles of money laying around and find more guys who can afford to jockey for position on the leader board of the institutional holdings list for MVIS.

MVIS stock seems to be in a vortex. There may be only one way to illustrate to the world that MVIS is going to be a good investment: By proving it to the people who believed all along.

9 comments:

At December 14, 2005 at 7:29 AM Anonymous said...

Great post . Talk to your friends at Microsoft . X -Box vision etc .

 
At December 14, 2005 at 10:12 AM Anonymous said...

My wife and I have invested all our savings on MVIS. We believe that this is a good investment. The future however is uncertain. There's no such thing as a sure thing. Invest only what you can afford to lose. Please do not mortgage your house. My opinion for what it is worth.

 
At December 15, 2005 at 4:24 AM luderella said...

i wouldn`t bet the farm. it is still not clear whether the company will survive or not. i wait until the doom and gloom dust settles. i will jump in big - technology seems to be compelling - when this little puppy has a more stable outlook. i don`t mind whether i have then to pay 5$ or 10$ or even 20$. there is enough upside potential to make me filthy rich. lol

 
At December 15, 2005 at 7:48 AM mvis2010 said...

The person that wrote to BJ saying he'd sell his house to buy 70,000 shares of mvis is either, a) an insider (and knows something); b)a genius, in which case I'd like to see the math or the fundamental research analysis; or c) a compulsive high-stakes gambler. My guess is c) simply because there's no way of "knowing" the future.

 
At December 15, 2005 at 9:26 AM Ben said...

well, I can't speak for this guy, and maybe he'll post a comment. but what I can say is that I've put myself out on a similar limb to accumulate MVIS shares and am neither a genius, nor an insider, nor a compulsive gambler.

I think it's just about taking the information that's available to you and making the decision most likely to result in the biggest payoff. If MVIS glasses are everywhere in 5 years, it makes the most sense to accumulate as many shares as possible...well, right now.

But the premise has to hold up. The technology has to develop and the business acumen has to get much tighter. So we'll see...!

 
At December 15, 2005 at 1:21 PM Anonymous said...

The thing with MVIS is they have so many enticing 'irons in the fire' that makes technology buffs drool at the possibilities (hence the blogger and the person who wants to sell his house and even a small shareholder like me) yet they don't have the expertise to really take one of these irons and make it lucrative for a business and have the full business plan to make the big investment houses plunk down the big bucks.

My gut feeling is that MVIS either has to just get "lucky" and have a company go nuts about one of its products (which is what they keep trying.. "here if we make enough cool shit someone will pay big bucks for one of them and we are set"). Investors don't like relying on luck.

MVIS's other option is overhauling the business side of things and getting some expertise in. Tokeman was supposed to be the shining star in this direction but we haven't seen any large scale changes in this direction since the Tokeman hire.

What MVIS needs is to make one of these really work (the auto HUD seems like a winner all around but I will not pretend to know the products enough to choose a particular one) and get enough profit from that to pay the bills and THEN you can have a million cool little projects. Think Google here - they worked and worked on the search side for years till it was a hit and NOW they are trying to take over everything internet related with an army of R&D people... but first they got that one big solid hit to propel all their other projects (so they never had to torture their investors with using dilution to make the payroll).

 
At December 15, 2005 at 1:28 PM Ben said...

Great comment.

I think that option 2, led by Tokman is the one that has been chosen. Although you have not seen any large scale changes yet, it has only been 5 months since he joined the company.

I'm looking forward to seeing what steps he takes to create shareholder value.

 
At December 18, 2005 at 12:27 PM Steve said...

I'm so glad I found this site.

I've been checking VRD progress every week ever since I saw Tom Furness demonstrate it on Tomorrows World in 1997.

I've been waiting 8 years and I still can't by a Virtual reality headset from you. Come on you guys! What's going on?

The potential consumer market is huge. If you made a high quality 3D Virtual Reality headset, people would be buying it in droves.
It could redefine the gaming industry. Microsoft are losing millions trying to beat Sony in the console market, they're throwing money around like confetti. I'm sure they would love to have a 3D edge over Sony. Perhaps you could get some investment from them.

And also consider that mobile video players like the PSP and Archos are caching on in a big way. Instead of a tiny low-res screen eating up the batteries, we could be enjoying high-res VRD glasses. Mitsubishi has already made their move in this direction with the scopo http://www.engadget.com/entry/8547656110143977/ .

Lightweight 3D headsets for video and gaming are going to happen sooner or later. Things are quickly moving in that direction. The question is, are you going to be there?

 
At December 18, 2005 at 1:46 PM Ben said...

we'll be there. welcome to MVIS Blog, Steve!

 

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