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What a wild time, eh? So, what's on the minds of MVIS Blog readers? Post a comment and let's get some dialogue going.

28 comments:

At December 16, 2005 at 10:29 AM Anonymous said...

Great concern as to whether they have sufficient funds to get a clean opinion from auditors and not a "going concern" statement. They pobably have till 3/06 to remedy the situation. Why one would want to do financings just three months apart is beyond me. Why have that distraction and albatross hanging around your neck unless it's the only option available.

 
At December 16, 2005 at 10:40 AM Ben said...

one take on this is maybe they'll get better prices in 2006 than they would have if they had blown out $25-30M at the end of 2005.

all they need is some kind of event to change the perception of the future value of the company and there's no reason this stock is not much higher.

so they do $10M at $3.94. maybe they do another $10-15M at $6 or something in early 2006.

it's possible, anyway.

 
At December 16, 2005 at 10:51 AM Anonymous said...

That has ALWAYS been the theory and the response given to this question. It has NEVER been accurate or come true in reality. It has ALWAYS cost more later and that's saying nothing about the legal etc fees for doing two instead of one.

 
At December 16, 2005 at 11:44 AM Ben said...

can't argue with the history. only question is whether the future is any different from the history.

I personally think the stock could be higher by 3/06 but we'll see.

I'm happy to have the $10M, anyway.

 
At December 16, 2005 at 4:54 PM Ben said...

Not to say that the initial comment isn't valid -- but I have to admit, all the fretting over the finances really bores me. I don't think there's any question that the company is going to be around.

I'm much more interested in how the funds get allocated and which projects are considered 'high priority' than worrying about the auditors, etc.

there are some big time products in the pipeline here -- that's the exciting stuff. worrying about dilution and the auditors and stuff like that is for guys in suits to deal with.

obviously, things could have gone better if they had only issued like 10M shares at $50, then there's no problems. but we take the world we've got and we go forward from there...

 
At December 16, 2005 at 5:28 PM Anonymous said...

Well Ben, if you were a billionaire the problems would be solved wouldn't they? Unfortunately you're not and they have to go to boring guys in suits to get funding. They best not act bored about it either. I think you underestimate the importance of it all and the drain on performance from never having enough funds and having to worry about every niggling little expense (not that they do). The ten million shares at $50 would have been nice, but more recently, 5 million at $8 would have sufficed. If I felt there was the ABILITY to do it that way I wouldn't mention it, but my fear is that the only way they can get funds is by agreeing to more and more onerous terms each time at the trough. I really hate having to rely on them pulling a rabbit out of their hat to live. I'm glad you can afford to be so flippant with your family's money, I however, cannot.

 
At December 16, 2005 at 5:56 PM Ben said...

no one's got a gun to your head that says invest in this stock...?

if it isn't right for you and your family, go with something else?

 
At December 16, 2005 at 6:19 PM Anonymous said...

That, my friend is a total cop out, ignores the issue, and does nothing to further any "discussion", discussion AS YOU REQUESTED.

You need to own some equities that go to zero to learn I guess. Take K-Mart, see all those stores out there?? Well, it's new owners and all the old owners of Kmart stock lost everything. Same thing can happen to Microvision and if you think otherwise you are naive in the extreme. You and I and every other common holder can lose everything and the company and the tech and the people working there can go on as if nothing much happened.

This crap about "just moving on" is bullshit and I think you know it deep down.

 
At December 16, 2005 at 6:38 PM Ben said...

hey, fair enough. point taken. not trying to belittle your concerns at all. just saying, there's are alternatives that may meet your needs better.

I'm not here to defend management or the BOD.

at the same time, talking about stuff that could have happened or should have happened doesn't really get us anywhere.

I'm not happy about a $3 stock price either.

we'll see what happens. to my thinking, the performance of management of this company or any other has a single metric: the stock price.

things can change in a hurry though. I'm trying to stay positive, cos I find I feel better when I have a positive outlook.

there is the risk that they could screw it up and we could lose our money. that's been inherit in this company since the beginning. I don't see doom at our doorstep any closer now than I did 3 months ago with only $1M in the bank and a stock price in the $5s.

the reality of the situation probably lies somewhere in between the doomsday scenario and the shiny happy people scenario.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 8:07 AM Anonymous said...

Let's not get too excited people. The discussion seemed to be reverting to the typical flame wars on Yahoo! Finance board.

Yeah, the stock price sucks. This is a speculative stock. MVIS has some great ideas. I'm not selling any time soon.

Good luck to everyone. Great job Ben on the blog.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 8:52 AM Anonymous said...

I would submit that the past dialogue is nothing like the flame wars. I would also submit that tossing it all off as "the stock price sucks" is also a cop out to a dialogue. My point would be, "WHY does the stock price suck"?? It's not because the market is down is it? So WHY is it sucking??? To this I would submit that it is exactly because of the point I brought up as well as numerous others, none of which are positive things.

You want to talk about good, positive things?? OK, then, name a few of them. What positive progress on the tech have you heard about lately? What positive moves on the financing front have you heard about lately?? What positive changes with organization and personnel have you heard about lately (Tokman excepted). For that matter, what positive thing have you heard about that Tokman was responsible for? What good, positive thing has happened lately that could/should have a positive impact on the share price?? What do you think points to the company being financially able to pursue proper development of "the platform"? How do they deal with the need to have a year's worth of funds available to get a clean opinion from the upcoming annual audit? How much time do they have to rectify that situation? WHY do they have to rectify that situation?? Why isn't it already rectified??

I submit that to ignore these things just because they are unpleasant is not a healthy way to view the situation or your investment. I think this is a case where honesty is the best policy.

I know this is Ben's blog and believe he should handle it however he chooses to. I did not bring any of this up until he solicited dialogue. If I could think of something positive to talke about I might have used that as a topic,,,,,,but I couldn't think of anything and that troubles me.

Why does the stock price suck, why?

 
At December 17, 2005 at 9:12 AM Ben said...

well, of course I don't have an answer to many of these questions.

there have been some potentially extremely positive developments around light sources which we all know have been constraining MVIS' ability to create full color Nomads.

also I fully expect to hear something about Tokman's plan in the next few weeks.

I guess I would take a look at the flip side of your questions and say, 'why do you hold this stock given all the problems/issues/concerns that you have?'

if you're really that worried about their solvency, why stick around?

that's what I don't get. it's a one-dimensional point of view. there has to be a reason to hold on here.

are you willing to share that?

also, it would be great to sign a name of some kind as it's confusing about who's responding to whom when everyone is 'anonymous'.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 9:56 AM Anonymous said...

Why do I still hold it?? Because there is no line for a refund that I can find. Pure greed I guess. I would like to at least get back what I have put into it and selling will not do that, for me, or really, for much of anyone else, will it? You really can't understand that?? Why someone is reluctant to just write off $100,000 or so?? Call it greed, call it whatever you like, I call it pretty normal behavior. There's a large crowd of people sitting on a 50% to 75% loss of capital, hoping for what appears to be a miracle. We believed what we were told and led to believe by the company. There's no difference between you and me save about 5 years of holding the bag. I apologize if it's painful or uncomfortable to hear that, but it IS reality.

I figured it was going to break down to this when I first commented but dammit, don't ask what's on someone's mind if you don't want to hear it. You know I am not alone in these feelings and conclusions.

Discounting similar sentiments of others in the past is EXACTLY what has led me (and others) to the current situation. Silly me, I figure someone might benefit from hearing another viewpoint.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 10:10 AM Anonymous said...

It is my opinion the stock price sucks because I've watched it go from $60 to $3, up to $10 and back to $3. It has been extremely volatile. I want to see stability.

I do feel that MVIS has had serious problems with marketing the Nomad. I knew this would happen as they moved from being strictly an R&D company to one that sells tangible products. From the last few CCs, I believe they're turning it around.

One positive - The military loves the Nomad and is willing to pay the high price for the unit. All the money paid for the military units will go into funding R&D to bring more consumer friendly products.

Another positive - Tokman and his GE experience. He brings a lot of experience to the table. He also brings 6-Sigma. MVIS will greatly benefit from this.

Being an armchair quarterback, I'd definitely do things differently. Maybe they only need the 10 million because they see a lot of revenue being generated very soon. You nor I can read their minds.

I got into this stock with the thought that it could evaporate like a lot of developmental stage companies. I've accepted the risk.

-Anon2

 
At December 17, 2005 at 10:16 AM Ben said...

I'm not discounting your sentiments. My question was, why hold it if you are so worried about solvency. You can get, it sounds like, $100k out of it if you just bailed.

the answer is, because you think it might go up. this would be due to 'a miracle' -- an act of God.

I wouldn't depend on that.

it's emotional, it's frustrating, it's scary to be down big money on an investment. I know this.

there are reasons why I'm here and it's not about hoping for a miracle. it's because I think things will turn around. I think they will get their money and things will change for the better -- and people may start to think about the technology and where it's headed and not just about where the next financing round is going to come from.

if it does happen for us, it will be because of hard work, and good decision making. God, I think, is sitting this one out.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 10:23 AM Anonymous said...

The first anonymous poster has a legit gripe to make. Nobody can deny him (or her) that. Sitting on a stock that's taken losses isn't fun to watch especially if the expected timeline for selling the stock is short. Until MVIS starts selling products meant for the indiviual consumer, the stock won't be moving much. MVIS is a big part of my portfilio and it hurts to see the red. This a stock you have to be comfortable holding for a long time.

There isn't anything wrong with being positive on the company since they've got a lot of good ideas which could be very disruptive.


-Anon2

 
At December 17, 2005 at 10:37 AM Anonymous said...

Ben, you are confusing "solvency" with another 50% reduction in the stock price. My concern is with the price and it is a concern that is very short term because they only have till, I think, March to have sufficient funds (a year's worth) to show the auditors. If they don't then I believe it will mean another 50% price reduction. It is only obliquely related to solvency itself. If they get that paragraph added to the auditor's report, the market will react very negatively to it and that has a direct impact on all our net worths. They just finished a round of financing, why wasn't it handled then?? It looks to me like they have no choice but to go back to the same people for more funding (or else borrow enough to take them out completely PLUS a year's worth of cash) and at this point you can't really say they are bargaining from a position of strength. In short, they'll get hosed big time if they can get any money at all. That's the concern and I have yet to see anything said that the concern is unfounded. If I could get $100K out right now I'd be mostly gone, read what I wrote again for a clearer understanding.

There's just two things at work here, one, the amount of cash needed per month and two, the amount of cash available. Receipts can be factored in but if there is no profit to the sale, there is no available cash generated.

And hey, there can be information that we do not have that can negate all or most of what I've said but depending on those types of unknown things in the past hasn't really proved to be the proper course.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 2:03 PM Ben said...

if you think the stock is going to tank another 50% by March, I don't get what you're hanging around for.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 2:15 PM Ben said...

to Anon2,

I think your comment that MVIS needs to target consumers before we see big price appreciation might be mistaken.

think about the industrial and military sectors. these are HUGE. we have not had the right products or the right marketing to penetrate these markets yet. maybe the missing link was full color, maybe it was application focus, maybe it was form factor, I dunno.

but imagine that Nomad for auto/trucking/plant maintenance really does start to happen (maybe with a next-gen model, maybe with the present model) for whatever reason.

it wouldn't take a whole ton of sales to start getting record revenues and blowing out year over year comparisons. these would lead to rising stock price.

most important to my thinking is simply to do what they say they are going to do so that we do not set up expectations and fail to meet them, ever again.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 3:22 PM Anonymous said...

if you think the stock is going to tank another 50% by March, I don't get what you're hanging around for.

I did not say that I thought it was going to happen for sure, I said that if X happens then Y will follow. If I was certain X was going to happen then I damn sure would be gone. Anyone who didn't vamoose would be nuts. Pardon me, but I thought that was the point of the dialogue. I'd like for someone to show me where my reasoning is wrong, so far they have not though, can you?? If you can't, why are you hanging around??? It's not all that complicated if you take the emotion out of it. If X happens, Y will follow, tell me why X won't happen. Simple no? Think about it. If you cannot understand it (why)now then I'm afraid the explanation is beyond my ability.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 4:18 PM Ben said...

maybe something good will happen between now and March.

that's what I'm hanging around for. we've had a lot of bad luck over the last few months. time for that to turn around, I think.

hang in there, or don't. it's your call.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 4:30 PM Anonymous said...

Maybe it will, maybe it will.

I guess we've gone full circle...

"...we've had a lot of bad luck over the last few months. time for that to turn around, I think..."

That strikes me an awful lot like you're seeking divine intervention, "Please God, give me a break here". Fate. Just kidding, but at this point many would call a dramatic turnaround "miraculous".

 
At December 17, 2005 at 5:53 PM Ben said...

you know, maybe you're right.

you always want to have God on your side. help me out, big guy.

those of you who are Darwinists can take comfort in the fact that evolution does not begin and end with biology -- technological progress is a part of evolution -- it just happens 10s of millions of times faster than biological evolution.

although it makes some people uncomfortable, the merger of man and machine is an inexorable event. retinal scanning displays will be THE key infrastructure to enable that to happen.

 
At December 17, 2005 at 6:41 PM Jim said...

And a great big AMEN to that!

There's alot one can speculate on certainly, but the inevitablity of using the retina scanning display seems to me a matter of time. It maybe just a bit later than sooner. Unfortunatly my infatuation with the technology and greed have kept me from selling earlier, like at $68, but then I'm probably like a few more MVIS investors.

Thanks for creating and maintaining this blog.

 
At December 18, 2005 at 2:56 AM luderella said...

to anon2

i totally agree with you. imo mvis has one last chance to survey as the company it is right now. they need to have this contract with ethicon fulfilled. if mvis can not meet their expectations they won`t get a second chance with any major player in the imaging industry near term. there may be an obstacle about the technology we don`t know. it could be price or colour, depends on product they want to sell. why don`t we hear anything about the canon partnership, anonym laser printer company, 2D barcode scanner and so on. they have a promising partnership with Bosch. great. but future product is still years away.
and i don`t see a full colour nomad in the near term. there is still no stable green laser diode, at reasonable price, available. as i have said, i can only hope mvis gets the deal with ethicon done. otherwise funding will become a big problem.

 
At December 18, 2005 at 3:03 AM luderella said...

not survey. i have meant survive. lol sorry, but i am a german.

 
At December 18, 2005 at 10:56 AM Ben said...

I find it amazing when people make blanket statements in a totally definitive way and provide no evidence to back up their assertion, i.e, luderella's claim that "they won`t get a second chance with any major player in the imaging industry near term".

no offense intended but how can you make such a claim? do you represent the entire imaging industry? do you have the CEOs from each one of these companies on speed dial?

makes no sense.

 
At December 19, 2005 at 11:15 AM Anonymous said...

i am only a novice when it comes to most things in life, i can only hope for the best for this stock and the world around me p.s. merry christmas and happy new year. upon this day, CHRIST, my saviour, was born in bethlehem ( dec 25 ) AMEN @ AMEN just call me sauggy

 

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