Site Network: Home |

Psychology Today

It is an important thing to recognize that a stock is not a company. The stock of MVIS has gotten kicked in the gut over the last few weeks, probably due to heavy shorting in advance of the recent financing. The quickness and relentlessness of the decline, in the absence of news about the business of the company, leaves people to infer that maybe something's going wrong, there's a problem somewhere with something, blah blah. I know a lot of people who have been in the stock for a while just feeling like they can't take it anymore and they don't want to endure any more of the kind of pain that MVIS longs have had to go through since October started.

It is important to separate the the psychological phenomenon of owning MVIS from the business of operating MVIS. I would suggest that the recent plunge is not an accurate reflection of the health of the business. In fact, the company had a lot less money in the bank back in October when the stock was $6. If you were going to freak out about the state of the company, that could have been the time to do it, right? But now in December, with a fresh $10M, there's a whole lot more room to move. Yet, the stock has been cut in half.

We've had another 3 months of technological progress, at the fastest rates ever. We are very close to the unveiling of Mr. Tokman's Roadmap to 2010, where MVIS investors will begin to see how we get from the (oooh, scary!) world of today, to the promised land of the ubiquitous scanned beam display.

The Roadmap and Vision will take us there.

Now, imagine for a moment that you are an engineer working on, say, the 12-month, $4.4M contract from General Dynamics that Microvision was awarded earlier in the year. You're not stopping work on your project because the stock has tanked. You've got til June 2006 to deliver on:

The 12-month contract will focus on preparing the Microvision HMD System for potential use in attack and utility helicopters, with specific emphasis on continued ruggedization and miniaturization of the HMD system. The previous phase of the program, with Microvision contracting directly with the Army Aviation and Missile Command, culminated in the delivery of a prototype full-color, daylight-readable helmet-mounted display [the Spectrum SD2500]. The new contract is expected to result in an upgrade for that display that will be ruggedized, miniaturized, and soldier-wearable in a package similar to Microvision's Nomad Helmet-Mounted Display System.

So, here it is. We will deliver a full-color, ruggedized wearable display with the astonishing quality of the Spectrum SD2500 in the next six months. That's the facts. That's a big part of the business of being Microvision. Deliver the highest quality display technology in the world to the DoD, to enable better safety and situational awareness for soldiers and pilots in harm's away. When I think about the time I saw the Spectrum, I was awestruck. It is incredible. To imagine that in a similar form factor to the existing Nomad, but small, rugged and ready for battle in the harshest will be obvious that there's value in the stock and in the future of the company.

Maybe the psychology is so negative today for whatever reason. I don't really care. I just know that these things can turn on a dime. And that the promise of MVIS-inside at the end of the GE-transplanted Roadmap, and the tangibility of a full color wearable display will be a pretty compelling story.


Post a Comment

This website does not recommend the purchase or sale of any stocks, options, bonds or any investment of any kind. This website does not provide investment advice. Disclaimer and Notices: Disclaimer: This website may contain "forward-looking" information including statements concerning the company's outlook for the future, as well as other statements of beliefs, future plans and strategies or anticipated events, and similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. The forward-looking information and statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the statements. The information on this website includes forward looking statements, including statements regarding projections of future operations, product applications, development and production, future benefits of contractual arrangements, growth in demand, as well as statements containing words like believe, estimate, expect, anticipate, target, plan, will, could, would, and other similar expressions. These statements are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results could differ materially from the results implied or expressed in the forward looking statement. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements are included in MVIS most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the heading 'Risk factors related to the company's business,' and our other reports filed with the Comission from time to time. Except as expressly required by Federal securities laws, MVIS Blog undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, changes in circumstances, or other reasons. Legal Notice: Although considerable care has been taken in preparing and maintaining the information and material contained on this website, MVIS Blog makes no representation nor gives any warranty as to the currency, completeness, accuracy or correctness of any of the elements contained herein. Facts and information contained in the website are believed to be accurate at the time of posting. However, information may be superseded by subsequent disclosure, and changes may be made at any time without prior notice. MVIS Blog shall not be responsible for, or liable in respect of, any damage, direct or indirect, or of any nature whatsoever, resulting from the use of the information contained herein. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. MVIS Blog has not independently verified the facts, assumptions, and estimates contained on this website. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, or completeness of the information and opinions contained on this website. Consequently, MVIS Blog assumes no liability for the accompanying information, which is being provided to you solely for evaluation and general information. This website does not contain inside information, proprietary or confidential information learned or disclosed as part of employment relationships or under nondisclosure agreements or otherwise.