Gilder: The Prophet's Perplex

on January 06, 2006

The Prophet's Perplex

Excerpted from the January 2006 Gilder Technology Report, by George Gilder

Sometimes it is possible to predict the future. But then you have to wait and then wonder and then wait more which is a worry and a pain for all the impatient and improvident.

My strategy, however, is to watch the pot until it boils. This is the task I am now attempting with Foveon, EZchip (LNOP), Microvision (MVIS), Power-One (PWER), Broadwing (BWNG), Cepheid (CPHD) and even my paid directorial potlatch Wave Systems (WAVX), which I have been nurturing for 15 years. Contrary to the epigram, watched pots do eventually boil. Sometimes (Global Crossing, Worldcom, you can supply other names I am sure), they boil over. But sometimes they boil up in value like Essex (KEYW) or Qualcomm (QCOM). In forecasting, you can predict either the ebullition or its timing. Doing both at once is the prophet's perplex.

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