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Microvision Market Cap: (37,339,000 shares * $1.84) $ 68,703,760

Cash and Stock Assets: Somewhere over $25M cash + (2.1M LMRA @ $2.90 = $6.09M) = somewhere over $31M

Total value of future cash flow from all products based on Microvision's proprietary scanned beam technology platform: $37.7M

Should these guys secure design wins for the IPM in HUD or Picoprojector configurations, or get significant contracts from the DoD, or follow on phases in the Ethicon contract, or any positive development occurs which demonstrates that the core technology platform has real intrinsic value, things will turn around in a big hurry.

I remember reading somewhere that over $200M has been spent on R&D since Microvision was incorporated. You can buy that $200M worth of technology development for $37.7M thanks to this 'efficient' stock market.

Look, the market is saying, we don't care that you have the world's greatest patent portfolio on scanning beams of light to display or capture images. We don't care that you have six sigma Blackbelts from GE as CEO, VP of Sales & Marketing and VP of Research and Product Development. We don't care that you are modularizing the technology into an Integrated Photonics Module to rapidly integrate the platform into a variety of configurations that include cell phone projectors and the highest quality, smallest form factor HUD in existence. Not to mention the significance of new BoD members including the leader of IBM's database software team. Not to mention the huge progress in ultra-miniature green laser light sources that has been made in the last 6 months, which has always been the missing link for consumer devices based on the MVIS platform.

The market doesn't believe that Microvision has fundamental value beyond $37M.

But I do. I believe in these guys. I believe in what they're doing. I believe that laser projectors that use the light-scanning IPM platform will become an indispensable feature in cell phones, just like cameras, and web access already have. I believe that the safety benefits of laser-scanning HUDs will be so compelling that every auto manufacturer will need to offer MVIS-based HUDs in order to be competitive in the marketplace.

I believe the need for Microvision technology to provide the big experience for mobile device users in an ultra-miniature form factor has never been more acute. No one else can come close. Every other technology is based on physical pixels fixed into place on a substrate.

Only Microvision creates full-size displays generated from a thumbnail-sized Integrated Photonics Module, which includes the MEMS scanner, ultra-miniature laser light sources, optics and driving electronics.

The market says the future cash flow from all the products generated by this intellectual property is worth $37.7M. We are told to believe the market is 'efficient' and there is wisdom in the collective action of its participants.

That's not what I believe.

I believe that top-tier management, imported from GE, with cash in the bank, a supremely elegant and broadly applicable technology platform, and strong market pull from cell phone and automotive OEMs can create value on an enormous, if not unprecedented scale.

That's what I believe. Call me crazy...but I've never felt more confident that this is going to work out than I do right now.

3 comments:

At July 12, 2006 at 9:14 AM helloseth said...

If your crazy, I am too. I'm looking at using this years Roth 401k contribution to get just MVIS shares. If their products are was great as I think they can/should be, it would be great to have the profit tax free!!!

 
At July 12, 2006 at 1:26 PM mvisdoubtful said...

I hope you're right, Ben, that's all I can say. I went long a few weeks after the financing, bought a lot of shares (know zip 'bout warrants). Without revenue, I wonder where the cost cuts will come from so earnings don't look bad again this quarter. I can't wait for that positive business development that re-ignites this company and its shares. I agree with you, all we need is a spark. But it's a hellish wait. Nice write-up, great work. Good luck.

 
At July 14, 2006 at 4:09 PM Anonymous said...

To the last comment. I and a lot of people went long way before the finacing. I don't like being in the hole either, but if you really believe in this tech and you know that the dots and t's are being crossed as we speak how can you not be long. When the contracts start rolling in you will forget the pain.

 

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