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Courage of Conviction

Well, I've had some time to think over the weekend. I read over my transcript of the conference call a couple of times. And I kept coming back to the same conclusion.

If you believe Tokman when he says that Microvision is:

1. "In good position to have good announcements in 3rd quarter this year, to kickoff at least the first major [HUD and PicoP] efforts."

2. "In detailed development stages with several Tier 1 integrators and the goal is to have first major announcement and commencement of the execution of HUD development in the 3rd quarter."

3. "Rapidly closing on the details" of commercialization contracts with multiple OEMs and Tier 1 integrators for Picoprojector, MicroHUD and AeroHUD.

4. Planning a "full global introduction [of HUD and PicoP] not limited by regions or exclusivity agreements. Within this environment, we are trying to optimize what is the right ratio between exclusivity vs. upfront revenue vs. eventual product sales. We are looking at all three sides of this equation to determine the optimal overall scenario."

Add to this the statement that Microvision's "government strategy is expected to come to full fruition in Q3".

Then this was the most positive conference call the company has ever had.

If you don't believe Tokman, and you look at the Q2 results and think replays of Q2 are all that we have to look forward to, then there is no reason for you to be in this stock.

In the past, this company has had problems with the credibility of statements made by its former CEO in conference calls. This may have been a contributing factor in Friday's sell off, compounded by a stock market that seems to really hate the future.

If you believe Tokman, then we are now, at long last, truly about to start commercializing the scanned beam technology with real OEMs and Tier 1 integrators in Japan, Korea, and the US.

I don't think Tokman came here to do smoke and mirrors and wordsmithing. This guy is a real executive from GE. He will be satisfied with nothing less than full global introductions of HUD and PicoP, and according to him, the company will have contracts kicking that off sometime between now and the end of September.

So, this conference call boils down to whether you think, 'been there, done that' on the promise of significant deals to come...or whether you believe what Tokman is trying to tell you.

One of the things that I've been trying to do to improve the quality of my life is to accept what is, and not resist the present moment, or be judgmental about it, or spend time wishing it was some other way.

On Thursday, Microvision CEO Alexander Tokman, the Six Sigma Blackbelt executive from GE Healthcare, who during his time at GE, "defined, developed, and successfully commercialized several new technology businesses including PET/CT, which added $500M+ of organic top line growth," said that Microvision was rapidly closing on the details of multi-year commercialization agreements for PicoP and HUD with cell phone OEMs and Tier 1 auto suppliers in Japan, Korea and the US.

On this news, the stock went down 16% to all time lows.

It's a Bizarro world sometimes. But it's the only world we've got...

Talk to you soon.


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