Emotion Detector

Emotion Detector

on August 06, 2004

Now that I'm done doing this, I can get back to writing this blog.

The path to greatness is fraught with peril. If building optical MEMS displays were easy, it would have been done a long time ago by someone other than Microvision.

The delay in release to production of the Nomad is a setback in the immediate term. But, the decision to switch to the free-air, Gen3 scanner is the right one. If the company can demonstrate steady, reliable and repeatable production of the Nomad with the Gen3 scanner, then we'll be back on our way. It is now obvious that the transition between R&D and building one-off prototypes to high-volume commercial production is a huge challenge -- one that the employees of Microvision will need to raise their game in order to meet.

Q2 was a disappointment. But it's history now. The second half of this year will tell the story. Ever since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on June 30, pretty much all stocks have just gotten crushed -- the 'threat level' turning orange, chaos in Iraq, and wobbly economic recovery all combine to reduce thin-skinned investors' appetite for risk and thirst for the big kill.

The question of whether to buy, sell or hold a stock is one that every investor faces every day. Having a relatively large amount of money invested in a single speculative technology company is never considered 'safe' or 'prudent' according to conventional wisdom. You have to be willing to ride out fluctuations based on market conditions or bumps on the road. If I wanted to be a working stiff for the rest of my life, I would go by the accepted wisdom and buy index funds (which are getting destroyed too) and put a third in bonds or whatever and in theory end up with a nice nest egg in thirty years.

But for me, it is still about the near future -- a future where MEMS displays are being cranked out by the millions and revenue for MVIS is being recognized in billions. And a future where this writer will own a nice sized chunk of that revenue.

Obviously, we've got a ways to go to get there. But get there we will. There's no turning back from building a world of ubiquitous mobile computing and high-brightness, see-through scanned beam displays.

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