As someone who believes that Microvision's display technology will proliferate and be sold in products where unit volume is measured in hundreds of millions within the next few years, it's been kind of hard for me to reconcile the stock price of MVIS which had been steadily declining over 2005.
This was especially strange since this year started off with what anyone would tell you is the most significant and positive announcement ever to come out of the company:
Microvision signs License and Development Agreement with Ethicon Endo-Surgery, Inc.
8-K Entry Material Agreement
But it goes to show you a couple of things. While 'price is real', stock prices can be completely disconnected from the actual underlying value of a company. The herd like behavior of traders (investors?) leads people to constantly be chasing from one 'hot' thing to the next, complete with huge speculative spikes and totally overblown panic episodes.
I have a hard time relating to this kind of behavior. I try to be a pretty even keel guy, without too many wild emotional swings -- try to keep things positive, stay upbeat and put your best effort out there. Someone once told me, 'there's no such thing as bad weather -- just the wrong clothes.' And I think that's really true. You can kick cans on the sidewalk and curse at the sky but it won't really change anything or make anything happen. You've got to take what life gives you and do your best with it.
People seem to be obsessed with the present and the immediate past, without the imagination or clarity of vision to think of what will be. I guess this is fine. This is what has had MVIS getting slammed for 4 months while the company brings in money on multiple development contracts that could and very well should be converted into production design wins -- where the sales and marketing efforts are performed by Fortune 500 behemoths and all MVIS needs to do is cash monthly royalty checks, and get to work designing new product components for new and existing partners.
Living inside my head, all I see is the opportunity. Sure, there is the risk of something going wrong along the way. But that risk is inescapable in any investment. The way to mitigate the risk of being wrong about the future is to do your homework -- think about where things are going, and where we might be given a few more years of technological progress.
So many sign posts along the way. As far as I can tell, they all say the same thing: 'Yes'.
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