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Things that struck me about today's call: The tone was extremely confident and assured. There is no doubt in these guys' minds about the path they're on, or their chances for success. We can hear a firm conviction from Tokman about 3rd Quarter being the real kickoff for the new Microvision. Other thoughts:
1. There will be a MicroHUD commercialization agreement with a Tier 1 automotive integrator during the 3rd Quarter. That means that between now and September 30th, Tokman expects to have an agreement in place that will put cars on the road with Microvision-inside. This will lead to improved earnings visibility and provide critical third party validation that Microvision's technology platform has value to customers.
2. Expects government contract to be signed in Q3. Again, between now and September 30th, Tokman expects the "full fruition" of the government strategy to be achieved.
3. Multiple agreements with OEMs and Tier 1 integrators for PicoP, AutoHUD and AeroHUD are in advanced stages of discussion. These agreements are multi-phase, multi-year contracts targeting not just the delivery of prototype devices, but full commercialization agreements for PicoP and HUD applications.
4. Newly designed PicoP IPM configurations can be embedded inside a Motorola RAZR cell phone. (The entire PicoP IPM, including light sources, electronics and the scanning mirror would have to be about the size of a dime to achieve this. Pretty awesome.)
5. The company is currently designing a successor to Nomad, a Color Eyewear product based on the IPM. This eyewear display will have ergonomics and cost structure to achieve rapid adoption across targeted market segments.
6. Tokman is planning global product introductions for PicoP and HUD. Multiple OEMs, multiple regions around the world all introducing Microvision technology at around the same time. Tokman is not going to sell the golden goose to just one company. He is employing a strategy designed to maximize the long-term value created by the PicoP and HUD IPM configurations. The dimensions of upfront revenue, OEM exclusivity windows and product sales royalty rates are being balanced to achieve the maximum benefit to Microvision.
7. You don't get to point 6 unless there is strong and serious interest in putting an agreement in place on behalf of these OEMs and Tier1 integrators.
BOTTOM LINE: Something good is going to happen soon. And then, the flood gates will be open.
1. There will be a MicroHUD commercialization agreement with a Tier 1 automotive integrator during the 3rd Quarter. That means that between now and September 30th, Tokman expects to have an agreement in place that will put cars on the road with Microvision-inside. This will lead to improved earnings visibility and provide critical third party validation that Microvision's technology platform has value to customers.
2. Expects government contract to be signed in Q3. Again, between now and September 30th, Tokman expects the "full fruition" of the government strategy to be achieved.
3. Multiple agreements with OEMs and Tier 1 integrators for PicoP, AutoHUD and AeroHUD are in advanced stages of discussion. These agreements are multi-phase, multi-year contracts targeting not just the delivery of prototype devices, but full commercialization agreements for PicoP and HUD applications.
4. Newly designed PicoP IPM configurations can be embedded inside a Motorola RAZR cell phone. (The entire PicoP IPM, including light sources, electronics and the scanning mirror would have to be about the size of a dime to achieve this. Pretty awesome.)
5. The company is currently designing a successor to Nomad, a Color Eyewear product based on the IPM. This eyewear display will have ergonomics and cost structure to achieve rapid adoption across targeted market segments.
6. Tokman is planning global product introductions for PicoP and HUD. Multiple OEMs, multiple regions around the world all introducing Microvision technology at around the same time. Tokman is not going to sell the golden goose to just one company. He is employing a strategy designed to maximize the long-term value created by the PicoP and HUD IPM configurations. The dimensions of upfront revenue, OEM exclusivity windows and product sales royalty rates are being balanced to achieve the maximum benefit to Microvision.
7. You don't get to point 6 unless there is strong and serious interest in putting an agreement in place on behalf of these OEMs and Tier1 integrators.
BOTTOM LINE: Something good is going to happen soon. And then, the flood gates will be open.
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Comments
Ben,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the great summary.
I about choked when they erroneously said a burn rate of 17 million in the last quarter. Glad it's 7.
This was the first time I heard of AeroHUD. Very interesting. I think that it could radically change the general aviation cockpit, and commercial cockpits too. But things move very slowly in the GA market.
But imagine if Boeing or Airbus get interested, AeroHUD for the cockpit, PicoP for the passengers. Flip down the tray, and project your movie on the part of the tray. Or from the tray up to the back of the seat.
The big, big thing for the airlines would be power usage, and weight. Both would be nothing for the PicoP. Less power, weight, heat.
Think of it. If you could put the PicoP in the overhead, like by the lights and air vents, the seats would be much, much simpler, and lighter. Boeing needs the PicoP for each seat in their new 787 Dreamliner!!!
Isn't Boeing still in Washington state?
Think of it. 500+ 787 airliners, with avg 250 seats. 125k PicoPs. GIVE them away at cost, 'cause just about everyone who uses one will want one for their car/phone/home.
For an extra fee, you can rent the color eyeware to see Angelina Jolie's latest movie, up-close and personal. ;-)
Man, can't go to sleep now.
ReplyDeleteThe 787 could have the picop in the overhead, next to the light and air vent.
Drop down the tray, for a screen.
Have an embeddded 'click-wheel' ala ipod, in the tray for control, with IR transmittion to the PicoP.
Use power to the tray/controller. No communication cables to the PicoP from the controller.
Only difficult problem I see (after all of 30min thought...) is how visible the PicoP image would be if the guy at the window leaves it open.
Exciting stuff Ben! Thanks for posting notes from the CC. Huge things in the works. I can sleep well tonight.
ReplyDeleteBen
ReplyDeletebeing enthusiastic is one thing but being patently wrong is another, please put things in the correct perspective when u have a blog u have a degree of responsibility for doing that. I'm also someone who has believed in the potential of this company for a long time. But seriously this earnings call was really nothing but promises the most striking thing i found was total lack of concreteness. The next quarter will be crucial for microvision they really have to come up with something solid by september 30th or this company is dead.
it boils down to whether you believe Tokman when he says there are deals coming soon, or not.
ReplyDeleteI fall into the believer camp.
everybody should do what's best for them.